Sudan Defence & Security Report 2016

Jun 22, 2016 - Business Monitor International - 36 pages - USD $1,295
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Sudan is the third large st arms manufacturer in Africa, capable of producing a range of (primarily ground-based) military products. That said , the local defence industrial base remains underdeveloped, and research and development activities are limited. As such, the country will continue to rely on imports for the procurement of more tech n ologically advanced equipment over o ur forecast period to 2025 . The persistent risk of war with South Sudan, as well as threats posed by the con flict in Darfur and insurgency in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states will continue to drive growth in military sp ending over the next few years; however, sanctions placed against the government prevent most foreign companies from exporting to Sudan.

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Over 2016, we expect Sudanese defence expenditure to reach USD2.9bn. This represents an increase of 6.9% and makes up 3.5% of overall GDP. This reflects the continued demand for funding for military offensives against rebels in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, as well as the persistent threat of an escalation of conflict with South Sudan.

Sudanese forces are participating in the ongoing Saudi-led intervention against Houthi rebels in Yemen, having contributed both strike aircraft and troops to the campaign. Khartoum's decision to support the campaign signalled a clear foreign policy shift from al-Bashir towards the Gulf.

Local media reported in February 2016 that Saudi Arabia had pledged USD5bn in military aid to Sudan - though this has yet to be confirmed.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched its annual dry-season offensive against rebels in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in March 2016. We expect the offensive to continue throughout the season, with enhanced support to the army from paramilitary and militia forces. According to local media reports in April-May, government forces have so far made minimal territorial gains. In Darfur, there has been an intensification of government attacks in the central Jebel Marra area since January 2016.

A referendum on whether Darfur should remain five administrative units or unite into one was held on April 11-13 2016; however, rebel groups in the region boycotted the vote. The Darfur Referendum Commission reported that 98% of voters had chosen the status quo - preferable for the government, as it keeps its opposition in Darfur divided. Rebel groups later announced they would refuse to accept the results. In May 2016, the Obama administration expressed concerns over Khartoum's decision to hold the referendum without support from the opposition.

US sanctions on Sudan have been subject to criticism in recent quarters, notably following a statement by UN Special Rapporteur Idriss Jazairy in November 2015, saying the measures 'do not have a negative impact on officials or any elite group...their full impact is on innocent citizens and on a deepening of the gap in income distribution within the Sudanese society and between provinces'.

Khartoum and Juba resumed bilateral talks in early June 2016 - following the formation of a new South Sudanese unity government in the previous month.

Defence Industry Risk Reward Index

Sudan's security environment is facing threats from insurgents in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, internal conflict in Darfur, the risk of war with South Sudan and political tensions. As such, demand for military equipment remains high, and is forecast to grow steadily over our forecast period to 2025. That said, the country is currently subject to international sanctions, which severely restrict defence imports and exports. Heightened instability, widespread corruption and low levels of economic and investment openness make the establishment of operations in the country a high-risk venture. Consequently, Sudan places fourth from the bottom of our Defence Industry Risk/Reward Index for the Middle East and Africa, with an overall score of 40 out of 100.

The Sudan Defence & Security Report features BMI Research's independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI'sSudan Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese defence and security industry.

Key Benefits
Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Sudan, South Sudan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese defence and security market.
Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world’s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world’s ‘wild card’ low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario


Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Defence Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
Armed Forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, manpower fit for militaryservice, army personnel, navy personnel,air force personnel, total armed forces, (‘000) (% population).
Arms Trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI’s heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI’s proprietary Security Risk Indices provide investors with a reliable and country-comparable guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious, or prolonged, terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/ Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Competitive Landscape

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries. The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting the Americas, along with potential risks in the coming year.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Defence & Security Market reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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BMI Research offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities. Through 'Total Analysis,' their unique, reflexive approach linking macroeconomic, industry and financial market analysis, they help clients gain unparalleled insight across 24 industries and 200 global markets.