Colombia Shipping Report Q1 2016

Oct 27, 2015 - Business Monitor International - 87 pages - USD $1,295
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The healthy level of growth seen at Colombia's main ports in 2015 is a trend we anticipate to continue over not only the short but medium term. Short-term growth will be stymied slightly, however, by slowing growth in Colombia, which will affect domestic demand for goods transported by sea. In 2016, we forecast that the leading port in y-o-y tonnage and box terms will be the port of Cartagena, which will see y-o-y gains of 5.00% and 5.01%, respectively.

Key drivers underpinning our forecasts include the fact that Colombia's consumer confidence index reading plunged in August 2015, contracting by 0.4% in that month, which further underpins our view for slowing growth in Colombia, and an area for concern for the country's shippers as demand for goods transported via sea could fall going forward. With rising inflation cutting into consumer purchasing power, and consumer confidence cooling fast, we expect retail sales growth to remain relatively tepid in the months ahead, which tempers our shipping forecasts somewhat. Also, Colombia's goods trade deficit looks poised to remain sizeable in the years ahead, on the back of low oil prices and sluggish crude production growth. While the Colombian peso's plunge will offer tailwinds to non-oil exports, structural obstacles in the agricultural and manufacturing sector will temper gains.

Over our new forecast period (2016 and 2020), we anticipate annual container and tonnage growth to be a healthy level, with the former reaching a slightly higher level than the latter at both the port of Cartagena and Buenaventura. This is based primarily on BMI's belief that the consumer picture will brighten over our forecast period.

Container throughput is forecast to average 6.08% to reach 876,024TEUs by the end of 2019, while tonnage handled is set to average 4.20% over the forecast period to reach just over 14.2mn tonnes.

The Colombia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Colombia.

BMI's Colombia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Colombia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Colombia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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BMI Research offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities. Through 'Total Analysis,' their unique, reflexive approach linking macroeconomic, industry and financial market analysis, they help clients gain unparalleled insight across 24 industries and 200 global markets.